We have a point: stock picking is a long-distance running! Generally been out in front of the company to continue to run in front of a larger probability. In particular, in recent years the proliferation of competition from companies that stand out in front is a broad market, Yimapingchuan feeling. Therefore, our basic idea is to buy a white horse, although not to buy at the foot of the mountain, but if I believe China's political stability and sustained economic prosperity, they have also just left the foot of the White Horse it. like China Life, has been out in front in front of a; Yili, Mengniu is the same, industry warlord has been basically over. for real estate, domestic real estate companies listed in Hong Kong and the Mainland has more than 30, 5 years, 2-3 Sun Hung Kai inevitably produce such large companies, such as Vanke companies like the most likely.
course, distance run down, leading eventually may run lose. such as Wal-Mart, Kmart last lost; CC lost to Best Buy last . but ran in front of Wal-Mart in 1985 when the Best Buy in 1996, went to the front of the time, and then into Wal-Mart and Best Buy also had time.
from a statistical point of view, it is exaggerated mortality of large companies. In fact, the mortality rate to buy big companies, and the success rate of small companies to buy as small as .1885 in compiling the Dow Jones index, the success of taking the then 12 largest stock, has 121 years , and the 12 companies in liquidation, only one, an annexation, the other 10 have remained a success of the enterprise: the two main industry has the same name (including GE), 5 family changed their names but did not change the main industry, a changed name and main industries, two have been privatized (privatization of the shareholders is not necessarily a bad thing).
the structural adjustment of the stock market for two years, but far from complete . such as domestic liquor, but also compensatory growth Maotai up the other, who do not pull down, take this line of thinking is definitely not work. Changyu up so that Hong Kong's dynasty is not up; in the set up so that Hong Kong's Saint lion is not up, this is the industry ran out in front with the differences in the behind.
addition to the already running outside in front, of course, there will be a number of other conditions. For example, the industry must be a strong industry, Foshan Lighting is also the industry first, 6% market share, compared with Vanke's share in the real estate is also large, but light industry growth rate of only 2% of the global and domestic, but also 5% growth rate compared to even close the real estate industry ; Moreover, management should be clear, then with the Shenzhen Vanke contemporaries have been closed down Gold Fields, the management of differences, most see clearly in the long-distance running. Suning year 2006 rose 3 times, the United States there are basically cross never rose before. Gome is not bad assets, primarily the management of investors not clear, at the beginning of more than 200 stores only the 65% of the shares into, the income calculation of 100%, profit plan and only come in 65% 35% stake in early 2006 to a high PE to sell listed companies, and now there are more than 100 shops waiting outside entered into, then there is a high-end electronics chain outside the Eagle, and then to spend a great management resources to engage in real estate.
This is our fundamental point: to buy the industry leader. get when you say it is not the industry leader. This is a preemptive strategy resources. is not grasping hot, but how to ensure their own cars to catch .2007 move back like a big fat A blue-chip shares, issued in 2007 to over 2008, not things made a strategic resource to so many. foreign capital is very aware of this, a few banking stocks is a typical strategy resources. to the few, the next few years is that several of the
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